What changed across Portugal’s key housing markets — and what the latest data means for buyers and sellers.
Michael Minson
QUARTER AT A GLANCE
Price tells us where the market is
↑ ANNUAL PRICES
Annual prices remain resilient
Prices remain above Q2 2025 levels in 14 of 15 tracked markets.
Quarterly softness has not yet translated into a broad annual Portuguese housing-price correction.
↓ PRICING MOMENTUM
Pricing momentum is becoming more uneven
The latest quarter showed substantially broader short-term softness than the annual numbers alone suggest.
Prices per m² declined from Q1 in 10 of 15 markets, compared with three in Q2 2024 and two in Q2 2025.
↑ SALES
Sales rebounded broadly
Q2 activity increased across every tracked market.
All 15 markets recorded more sales than Q1, while 14 remained below Q2 2025—a seasonal rebound rather than broad annual acceleration.
↓ INVENTORY
Inventory tightened broadly
Estimated inventory declined almost everywhere.
Estimated Months of Inventory fell in 14 of 15 markets and about 18% across the panel, potentially supporting pricing if demand persists.
WHAT HOMES ACTUALLY SOLD FOR
What homes actually sold for in Q2
Average sale price tells us what buyers actually spent, but it can be affected by the size and type of properties sold during the quarter.
Average transaction valueQ2 2026 · 15 tracked concelhos
Q2 2026 average sale price
Market
Average sale price
Cascais
€613,685
Loulé
€581,009
Lisboa
€531,890
Oeiras
€502,927
Óbidos
€421,571
Faro
€386,107
Lagos
€380,140
Caldas da Rainha
€357,333
Porto
€346,256
Matosinhos
€333,768
Sesimbra
€333,282
Setúbal
€325,386
Palmela
€319,507
Vila Nova de Gaia
€289,566
Nazaré
€240,642
Source: Confidencial Imobiliário (SIR) · Q2 2026
COMPARABLE PRICING
What buyers paid per square metre
Price per square metre makes markets easier to compare because the size and type of properties sold can vary considerably.
Average Sale Price per AreaQ2 2026 · 15 tracked concelhos
Q2 2026 average sale price per area
Market
Price per area
Lisboa
€5,767/m²
Loulé
€5,256/m²
Cascais
€5,088/m²
Oeiras
€4,921/m²
Lagos
€4,061/m²
Porto
€4,026/m²
Matosinhos
€3,530/m²
Sesimbra
€3,353/m²
Faro
€3,200/m²
Setúbal
€3,002/m²
Vila Nova de Gaia
€2,995/m²
Palmela
€2,836/m²
Nazaré
€2,259/m²
Caldas da Rainha
€2,254/m²
Óbidos
€2,168/m²
Source: Confidencial Imobiliário (SIR) · Q2 2026
ARE PRICES STILL RISING?
Most markets are still more expensive than a year ago
Fourteen of the 15 markets AGTP tracks recorded higher average sale price per m² than Q2 2025. A municipal quarterly average can move sharply when the mix, size, location or quality of properties sold changes.
YoY change in Average Sale Price per AreaQ2 2026 vs Q2 2025 · %
Year-over-year price per area change
Market
YoY change
Cascais
+9.3%
Lisboa
+12.6%
Oeiras
+14.8%
Palmela
+20.0%
Sesimbra
+26.3%
Setúbal
+22.2%
Caldas da Rainha
+15.6%
Nazaré
+12.2%
Óbidos
-43.3%
Matosinhos
+3.0%
Porto
+8.8%
Vila Nova de Gaia
+15.3%
Faro
+4.4%
Lagos
+2.5%
Loulé
+35.7%
Property-mix caution: Óbidos is the only negative annual result, but its small sample and transaction mix do not support describing it as a housing crash.
Source: Confidencial Imobiliário (SIR) · Q2 2026
PUT Q2 IN PERSPECTIVE
Put Q2 in perspective
A single softer quarter is best evaluated against the full ten-quarter trajectory. The five panels group municipality-level CI series by region; they do not create synthetic regional averages.
Average Sale Price per AreaQ1 2024 → Q2 2026 · €/m² · municipality series
Portugal’s highest absolute and per-area prices remain highly differentiated across Lisboa, Cascais and Oeiras.
Cascais
Average sale price
€613,685
Price per area
€5,088/m²
YoY price per area
+9.3%
QoQ price per area
-2.4%
Estimated Months of Inventory
14.9 months
Lisboa
Average sale price
€531,890
Price per area
€5,767/m²
YoY price per area
+12.6%
QoQ price per area
-2.7%
Estimated Months of Inventory
15.5 months
Oeiras
Average sale price
€502,927
Price per area
€4,921/m²
YoY price per area
+14.8%
QoQ price per area
+1.9%
Estimated Months of Inventory
7.9 months
Lisboa, Cascais and Oeiras should not be treated as one uniform price market. Inventory may influence future negotiating conditions, but the current evidence does not establish causation.
Some of the strongest annual pricing gains among the 15 markets AGTP tracks.
Palmela
Average sale price
€319,507
Price per area
€2,836/m²
YoY price per area
+20.0%
QoQ price per area
+5.9%
Estimated Months of Inventory
6.3 months
Sesimbra
Average sale price
€333,282
Price per area
€3,353/m²
YoY price per area
+26.3%
QoQ price per area
-8.6%
Estimated Months of Inventory
8.9 months
Setúbal
Average sale price
€325,386
Price per area
€3,002/m²
YoY price per area
+22.2%
QoQ price per area
+3.3%
Estimated Months of Inventory
8.3 months
Palmela, Setúbal and Sesimbra all recorded strong annual price growth. Comparatively tight inventory is context—not proof that inventory caused those increases.
Neighboring municipalities produced sharply different quarterly averages, making property mix especially important.
Caldas da Rainha
Average sale price
€357,333
Price per area
€2,254/m²
YoY price per area
+15.6%
QoQ price per area
+13.3%
Estimated Months of Inventory
5.4 months
Nazaré
Average sale price
€240,642
Price per area
€2,259/m²
YoY price per area
+12.2%
QoQ price per area
-20.5%
Estimated Months of Inventory
6.8 months
Óbidos
Average sale price
€421,571
Price per area
€2,168/m²
YoY price per area
-43.3%
QoQ price per area
-21.5%
Estimated Months of Inventory
11.7 months
Caldas da Rainha, Nazaré and Óbidos diverged substantially. Property mix makes the Óbidos annual average especially sensitive and unsuitable for a sensational conclusion.
Inventory rose over the year in parts of the region, while broad annual price declines did not follow.
Matosinhos
Average sale price
€333,768
Price per area
€3,530/m²
YoY price per area
+3.0%
QoQ price per area
-3.5%
Estimated Months of Inventory
11.9 months
Porto
Average sale price
€346,256
Price per area
€4,026/m²
YoY price per area
+8.8%
QoQ price per area
-2.0%
Estimated Months of Inventory
20.9 months
Vila Nova de Gaia
Average sale price
€289,566
Price per area
€2,995/m²
YoY price per area
+15.3%
QoQ price per area
+0.1%
Estimated Months of Inventory
12.3 months
Inventory has increased substantially in parts of the Porto Area, yet prices have not shown a corresponding broad decline. That tension is persistent across the available series and worth watching.
A softer quarter doesn’t automatically mean cheaper homes
Quarterly averages can move because the properties sold changed—not only because each property became more or less expensive. Average sale price tells you what buyers spent; price per area makes unlike transactions easier to compare; and annual direction supplies context a single quarter cannot.
Listing supply and closed transactions are different measures. Changing inventory may shape future negotiating conditions, but an individual property still needs to be evaluated against relevant comparable sales, condition, location and legal readiness.
For buyers and sellers: use the market trend to frame the conversation, then use property-specific evidence to make the decision.
— Michael Minson
METHODOLOGY / SOURCES
How to read these figures
Data source
Confidencial Imobiliário — SIR (Sistema de Informação Residencial).
AGTP analysis is based on data supplied through the CI SIR database. Calculations, presentation, commentary, translations, conversions and derived metrics are by The American’s Guide to Portugal unless otherwise noted.
Confidencial Imobiliário / SIR residential-market data. AGTP tracks 15 municipalities across five regional groupings. Average Sale Price is sourced directly from CI Preço de Venda / Fogo — media; it is not derived from €/m².
Price trend
Chart 4 shows the 15 municipality series grouped visually into five regions. No municipal values are averaged into a synthetic regional price series.
Estimated inventory
Estimated Months of Inventory is an AGTP-derived metric calculated from Confidencial Imobiliário SIR data as: 3 × homes recorded as being in offer ÷ homes sold. It is not a metric published by Confidencial Imobiliário. Regional values use summed offer and sales counts, never an average of municipal results.
CI’s precise quarterly timing convention for Fogos em Oferta remains unconfirmed. AGTP therefore treats this as an estimated comparative measure, not literal MLS-style months of supply.
Display units
Canonical source values remain EUR and m². Area conversions use 1 m² = 10.7639 ft². USD conversions are approximate using the European Central Bank euro foreign exchange reference rates dated 2026-08-28; one shared EUR/USD rate (1.1643) is used throughout this rendered report.
Time From Listing to Sale Agreement
CI defines Tempo de Absorção as the average number of months between placement in offer and the transaction event associated with the CPCV. It is not directly comparable to U.S. MLS Days on Market.
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