Source figures are in euros and m². Display conversions are estimates; percentage changes retain their source-currency basis.
In this report
At a Glance
Reading Time
10 minutes
Who This Report Is For
Americans buying, selling or comparing locations in Portugal.
You’ll Learn
- Lisbon averaged €525,262 and €5,963/m²; Cascais had the highest total transaction average at €663,404.
- Annual €/m² growth slowed across Q1, Q2 and Q3 in Lisbon and Cascais. Oeiras retained a 19.0% annual increase.
- All three recorded fewer unit sales over the latest four quarters, while municipal marketing times shortened compared with Q3 last year.
Key Takeaway
Price growth moderated in Lisbon and Cascais, while Oeiras retained stronger increases despite lower unit sales.
Price growth slowed in Lisbon and Cascais while Oeiras held a different course
Unit sales activity has slowed across Lisbon, Cascais and Oeiras, but their price trends have separated. Lisbon’s annual growth in average sale €/m² eased from 18.6% in Q1 to 7.4% in Q3. Cascais moved from 12.4% to almost flat at 0.3%. Oeiras remained much stronger, with a 19.0% annual increase in Q3.
The unit sales slowdown is persistent. Four-quarter unit sales totals fell 13.2% in Lisbon, 14.1% in Cascais and 3.4% in Oeiras. Yet used-apartment price averages increased in all three. This is evidence of lower transaction activity alongside different degrees of price resilience, rather than a uniform price plateau.
Oeiras’s stronger price performance does not establish that buyers are relocating from Lisbon or Cascais. The data describes where transactions occurred, not where buyers came from or which alternatives they considered.
What did homes sell for
The square-metre comparison and the total-budget comparison answer different questions. Lisbon averaged €525,262 per transaction and 92 m², compared with €663,404 and 126 m² in Cascais. Oeiras averaged €520,644 and 106 m².
Cascais’s lower €/m² than Lisbon did not translate into the lower average purchase price. The properties sold were larger on average. Oeiras and Cascais were separated by only €52/m², yet their average total transactions differed by more than €142,000. For a buyer, that is a reason to compare complete homes at the same acquisition budget.
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| Municipality | Average total sale price | Average €/m² | Average property size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lisbon | €525,262 | €5,963 | 92 m² |
| Cascais | €663,404 | €5,254 | 126 m² |
| Oeiras | €520,644 | €5,202 | 106 m² |
| Measure | Lisbon | Cascais | Oeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average total sale price | €525,262 | €663,404 | €520,644 |
| Average €/m² | €5,963 | €5,254 | €5,202 |
| Average property size | 92 m² | 126 m² | 106 m² |
Source: Confidencial Imobiliário, SIR — Residential Information System. AGTP analysis. © IMOESTATISTICA – TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.
How have prices changed
Lisbon’s average €/m² rose 7.4% from Q3 2025, while average total value rose only 1.2%. Average area fell from 96 to 92 m². Higher price per metre therefore coexisted with a smaller average transacted property and a fairly stable total transaction value.
Cascais was almost unchanged on €/m² year over year, at +0.3%, while average total value was 2.4% lower. Its 8.1% increase in total value from Q2 should be read alongside that flatter annual comparison.
Oeiras showed the largest increase in €/m², at 19.0% year over year, but its average total value rose 8.4%. Average area declined from 116 to 106 m². None of these comparisons measures what happened to an identical home. They describe the properties transacted in each period.
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| Municipality | Total sale price vs Q2 | Total sale price vs Q3 2025 | €/m² vs Q2 | €/m² vs Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisbon | -1.2% | +1.2% | +3.4% | +7.4% |
| Cascais | +8.1% | -2.4% | +3.3% | +0.3% |
| Oeiras | +3.5% | +8.4% | +5.7% | +19.0% |
| Measure | Lisbon | Cascais | Oeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total sale price vs Q2 | -1.2% | +8.1% | +3.5% |
| Total sale price vs Q3 2025 | +1.2% | -2.4% | +8.4% |
| €/m² vs Q2 | +3.4% | +3.3% | +5.7% |
| €/m² vs Q3 2025 | +7.4% | +0.3% | +19.0% |
Source: Confidencial Imobiliário, SIR — Residential Information System. AGTP analysis. © IMOESTATISTICA – TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.
The longer view
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| Municipality | Unit sales over 4 quarters | €/m² annual change Q1 | Q2 | Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisbon | -13.2% | +18.6% | +12.6% | +7.4% |
| Cascais | -14.1% | +12.4% | +9.3% | +0.3% |
| Oeiras | -3.4% | +19.3% | +14.8% | +19.0% |
| Measure | Lisbon | Cascais | Oeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unit sales over 4 quarters | -13.2% | -14.1% | -3.4% |
| €/m² annual change Q1 | +18.6% | +12.4% | +19.3% |
| Q2 | +12.6% | +9.3% | +14.8% |
| Q3 | +7.4% | +0.3% | +19.0% |
Four-quarter unit sales compare Q4 2025–Q3 2026 with Q4 2024–Q3 2025. Price columns show each quarter’s change from the same quarter a year earlier; they are not quarterly growth rates.
Source: Confidencial Imobiliário, SIR — Residential Information System. AGTP analysis. © IMOESTATISTICA – TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.
Unit sales activity and available supply
The Q3 decline sits within a longer slowdown. Lisbon has recorded five consecutive quarters of year-over-year unit sales declines, Cascais four and Oeiras three. The four-quarter totals help separate that persistent pattern from the latest quarterly movement.
Supply increased from Q2 in all three municipalities. Against a year earlier, however, Lisbon had 13.5% less supply and Cascais 1.3% less; Oeiras had 19.7% more. Fewer unit sales are therefore not accompanied by the same supply conditions everywhere.
Oeiras combines more offered homes and fewer unit sales with faster marketing and smaller final discounts than a year earlier. Lisbon also sold faster, although its discounts widened. Those differences limit a simple explanation based on homes accumulating because buyers have disappeared.
New properties represented approximately half the offered supply in Lisbon and Oeiras, and 46.7% in Cascais. Their shares of estimated unit sales were smaller. Offered projects may include homes under planning or construction, so this is not a count of completed homes ready for occupation.
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| Municipality | Estimated unit sales | Unit sales vs Q3 2025 | Homes offered | Supply vs Q2 | Supply vs Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisbon | 1,912 | -13.1% | 11,989 | +11.5% | -13.5% |
| Cascais | 649 | -17.7% | 4,235 | +14.6% | -1.3% |
| Oeiras | 631 | -10.1% | 2,344 | +24.1% | +19.7% |
| Measure | Lisbon | Cascais | Oeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated unit sales | 1,912 | 649 | 631 |
| Unit sales vs Q3 2025 | -13.1% | -17.7% | -10.1% |
| Homes offered | 11,989 | 4,235 | 2,344 |
| Supply vs Q2 | +11.5% | +14.6% | +24.1% |
| Supply vs Q3 2025 | -13.5% | -1.3% | +19.7% |
Source: Confidencial Imobiliário, SIR — Residential Information System. AGTP analysis. © IMOESTATISTICA – TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.
Lisbon
Used apartments averaged €5,392/m², 10.5% above Q3 last year, while new apartments averaged €7,628/m², up 6.3%. The price increase was therefore visible in both categories.
The total budgets and timelines were different. Used apartments averaged €461,970 and four months from listing to transaction; new apartments averaged €707,675 and eight months. New apartments also sold closer to their last asking prices, with a 3.1% final discount versus 5.7% for used apartments.
For someone deciding between an existing apartment and a new project, the relevant comparison includes usable space, exact location, parking, condition and completion certainty. The difference between the two averages does not isolate the value attributable to new construction.
Used T2 apartments recorded a 14.9% annual increase in average €/m² and used T3 apartments an 8.9% increase. Higher prices therefore remain visible within these narrower categories, even as the municipal rate of growth has slowed. Location and condition can still change within each category.
Cascais
Used-apartment €/m² was 1.8% above last year, while new-apartment €/m² was 3.2% lower. Houses overall were nearly flat at +0.9%. These segment figures reinforce the restrained municipal annual price movement.
Property type changed the budget substantially. Apartments averaged €570,886 and 100 m²; houses averaged €903,675 and 192 m². Houses had a lower average €/m², but a much higher total sale price. Their final discount averaged 6.2%, compared with 4.8% for apartments.
Used apartments took four months to transact, compared with seven for new apartments. A buyer moving from an apartment search to a house search should rebuild the budget and comparable-property set rather than carrying the same €/m² expectation across both.
The narrower apartment comparisons were mixed: used T2 average €/m² was virtually unchanged annually at −0.1%, while used T3 rose 9.6%. Cascais is close to annual price stability at the municipal level, but that does not describe every property category equally.
Oeiras
New-apartment €/m² was 24.3% above last year and used-apartment €/m² 13.3% higher. Houses overall increased just 1.0%. The apartment evidence helps explain why the municipal price story cannot be applied evenly to every property type.
Used apartments averaged €410,694 three months of marketing time and a 4.3% final discount. Houses averaged €726,286 six months and a 7.4% discount. New apartments averaged €720,091 five months and a 1.8% final discount.
That is a wide range of budgets and negotiating histories within one municipality. Oeiras’s strong municipal price comparison is useful context, but it does not establish the offer strategy for a used apartment, a house or a new project.
Used T2 and T3 average €/m² rose 15.5% and 15.0% annually. The price increase is therefore visible beyond a shift toward new apartments alone, although these are still averages of different properties sold.
Marketing time and negotiation
Marketing time shortened from seven to five months in Lisbon, six to five in Cascais and six to four in Oeiras compared with Q3 2025. Final discounts widened from 4.3% to 5.3% in Lisbon, stayed at 5.2% in Cascais and narrowed from 4.9% to 3.9% in Oeiras.
Lower unit sales have therefore not produced uniformly longer negotiations or larger reductions. These measures describe the homes that reached a transaction; they do not measure every unsold listing. Accumulated discounts include earlier asking-price revisions and are larger than the final negotiation figures.
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| Municipality | Listing to transaction | Final discount | Accumulated discount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lisbon | 5 months | 5.3% | 7.3% |
| Cascais | 5 months | 5.2% | 7.1% |
| Oeiras | 4 months | 3.9% | 4.8% |
| Measure | Lisbon | Cascais | Oeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Listing to transaction | 5 months | 5 months | 4 months |
| Final discount | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.9% |
| Accumulated discount | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.8% |
Source: Confidencial Imobiliário, SIR — Residential Information System. AGTP analysis. © IMOESTATISTICA – TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.
Mortgage demand in context
Banco de Portugal’s July 2026 survey reported slightly weaker housing-loan demand in Q2. This national assessment is not an application count or evidence of the cause of this region’s Q3 unit sales changes.
What this means for buyers
Start with the kind of home you want and the total budget you can commit. Then compare relevant alternatives across the three municipalities. A lower €/m² may accompany a larger and more expensive home; a higher €/m² may accompany a smaller transaction that fits the budget.
For each property, establish the original asking price, current price, listing history and whether the comparison is new or used. Keep acquisition taxes, financing costs and immediate work separate from the reported sale price.
What this means for sellers
The decline in estimated transactions makes property-specific pricing especially valuable. Oeiras’s higher municipal price average is not evidence that every house should be priced 19% above last year. Cascais’s flat annual €/m² does not mean a renovated apartment and a large house face identical conditions.
Use the most relevant competing and transacted properties available, and account for condition, documentation and your timing. The regional data is a starting point for that work.
Michael’s Perspective
The change I would pay attention to is the gap between slower unit sales and prices that are still holding up differently across the three municipalities. Lisbon and Cascais have clearly lost price-growth momentum; Oeiras has not followed the same path.
For a client, that means the broad market label is less useful than the specific comparison. I would look at the kind of home, the competing listings and the pricing history before deciding whether the evidence supports an asking price or an offer.
Methodology and sources
This report uses Q3 2026 municipality-level statistics from Confidencial Imobiliário’s SIR — Sistema de Informação Residencial. The quarter ended September 30, 2026, and AGTP reviewed the uploaded files and extended history on October 15. Municipal tables combine all residential property types and new or used conditions; segment sections identify narrower filters.
Prices are averages, not medians. €/m² uses gross private area, or área bruta privativa, which is not necessarily equivalent to American interior living area. Estimated transactions are CI’s market-activity estimates, not the raw sample supporting every price statistic.
The extended history spans Q1 2024–Q3 2026. Four-quarter unit sales changes compare Q4 2025–Q3 2026 with Q4 2024–Q3 2025. Historical editions can have different revision status; full comparability of release status has not been established. Quarterly changes compare Q3 with Q2 2026. Annual changes compare Q3 2026 with Q3 2025. Both describe changes in aggregate averages and can reflect property mix. They are not controlled measures of appreciation, and quarterly changes are not seasonally adjusted. Unavailable segment figures have not been estimated.
Listing-to-transaction time measures marketing months, with the transaction assigned to the CPCV when one exists or the deed otherwise. It is not months of inventory or necessarily the time to final deed. New properties can include certain recent resales and homes sold during planning or construction.
Final discount compares the completed sale with the last asking price; accumulated discount compares it with the original asking price. Percentages are presented as reduction magnitudes. Neither is an automatic offer recommendation.
Data status: Preliminary. Figures remain subject to revision with the Q4 dissemination. Updated selling-price treatment (PVA) has not been independently confirmed for these Q3 files. Quarter-over-quarter comparisons use the current Q2 2026 workbook in AGTP’s Google Drive as the authoritative baseline. Year-over-year comparisons use the Q3 2025 workbook. All six Q3 reports use the same source tables and definitions.
Read How We Analyze Portugal’s Real Estate Market for definitions and limitations. AGTP is responsible for the selection, calculations and interpretation; CI/Imoestatística supplies the underlying statistics.
Source: Confidencial Imobiliário, SIR — Residential Information System. AGTP analysis. © IMOESTATISTICA – TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.
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Photography credits
Photo by Cassia Tofano on Unsplash, used under the Unsplash License. Cropped responsively for this report.