Silver Coast Property Market — Q3 2026

Slower unit sales and longer marketing made pricing more consequential

Caldas da Rainha and Nazaré both recorded fewer unit sales, longer marketing and wider final negotiation discounts than Q3 last year. Average €/m² nevertheless remained higher annually in both. The quarter provides a clear example of price averages holding up alongside more difficult transaction conditions.

Their supply positions differed. Caldas had more offered homes than a year earlier; Nazaré had fewer. Their price paths differed too: Caldas’s average €/m² fell from Q2, while Nazaré’s rebounded sharply. Neither quarterly movement should be read without the annual comparison.

The available property-segment evidence is limited, especially in Nazaré. That restricts how confidently we can explain the aggregate price movements, even where the unit sales and negotiation patterns are clear.

What did homes sell for

Caldas da Rainha had the lower average total value and €/m², while its average transacted property was larger: 127 m² versus 106 m² in Nazaré. Nazaré’s higher per-metre price accompanied a smaller average property and a moderately higher total transaction value.

That is a useful comparison for a buyer weighing space against location and total budget. It does not establish that every larger Caldas property is better value, or that equivalent homes in the two municipalities differ by the same percentage.

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Source: Confidencial Imobiliário, SIR — Residential Information System. AGTP analysis. © IMOESTATISTICA – TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.

How have prices changed

Caldas’s average total value fell 35.0% from Q2, while €/m² fell 10.6% and average area declined from 142 to 127 m². The annual comparison was more moderate: total value rose 4.8% and €/m² 12.6%.

Nazaré’s €/m² rose 27.0% quarterly, but only 1.9% annually. Its total transaction value was 7.2% higher than Q2 and 4.8% lower than Q3 last year. The quarterly rebound is therefore not sufficient evidence of sustained rapid price growth.

Neither Caldas’s total-value decline nor Nazaré’s per-metre increase measures the change in an identical home. With incomplete segment evidence, we cannot confidently assign the municipal movements to particular property categories.

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Source: Confidencial Imobiliário, SIR — Residential Information System. AGTP analysis. © IMOESTATISTICA – TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.

The longer view

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Four-quarter unit sales compare Q4 2025–Q3 2026 with Q4 2024–Q3 2025. Price columns show each quarter’s change from the same quarter a year earlier; they are not quarterly growth rates.

Source: Confidencial Imobiliário, SIR — Residential Information System. AGTP analysis. © IMOESTATISTICA – TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.

Unit sales activity and available supply

Caldas recorded 7.1% fewer estimated unit sales than Q3 last year, following a small annual increase in Q2. Its four-quarter unit sales total was 3.5% lower. Nazaré’s decline was more persistent: four consecutive quarters of annual reductions and a 17.1% fall in the four-quarter total.

Caldas had 13.9% more supply than a year earlier, alongside slower selling and wider final discounts. These indicators align more clearly with softer transaction conditions. Nazaré had 18.9% less supply despite fewer unit sales and longer marketing; that does not support a story of a broad inventory build-up.

New properties represented 37.4% of Caldas’s offered supply and 41.4% of Nazaré’s, with much smaller shares of estimated transactions. These categories include different stages of development and do not establish immediate availability.

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Source: Confidencial Imobiliário, SIR — Residential Information System. AGTP analysis. © IMOESTATISTICA – TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.

Caldas da Rainha

Used apartments averaged €1,939/m², only 1.1% above last year but 17.8% below Q2. Their average total value was €230,793 with five months from listing to transaction and a 10.9% final discount.

The municipal €/m² increase was larger than the used-apartment increase. However, Q3 house €/m² and new-apartment price statistics are unavailable. We should not fill that gap with an assumed explanation about houses or new construction.

For a buyer, the available apartment evidence supports asking carefully about the property’s original price, subsequent reductions and relationship to comparable transactions. It does not establish a standard discount to apply to every listing.

Nazaré

Nazaré averaged eight months from listing to transaction, compared with six in Q2 and seven a year earlier. Its final discount was 8.6%, while the accumulated discount reached 14.6%.

The difference shows why the current asking price does not reveal the full pricing history. Some adjustment can occur before a buyer makes an offer. These figures describe average reductions for transacted properties, rather than the discount available on all current listings.

Separate new- and used-apartment price statistics and house price statistics are unavailable for Q3. The estimated 83 transactions are an activity measure, not the raw sample size behind the municipal price average. The evidence supports a municipal comparison, with limited scope for explaining its segment composition.

Marketing time and negotiation

Caldas’s average marketing time increased from four to six months compared with Q3 last year, while its final discount widened from 4.1% to 9.3%. Nazaré increased from seven to eight months, with the final discount widening from 7.3% to 8.6%.

The accumulated discount reached 11.7% in Caldas and 14.6% in Nazaré. It includes asking-price revisions before the final negotiation. These reductions describe transacted properties, not the discount available on every current listing, and should not be added mechanically to reductions already made.

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Source: Confidencial Imobiliário, SIR — Residential Information System. AGTP analysis. © IMOESTATISTICA – TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.

Mortgage demand in context

Banco de Portugal’s July 2026 survey reported slightly weaker housing-loan demand in Q2. This national assessment is not an application count or evidence of the cause of this region’s Q3 unit sales changes.

What this means for buyers

Use the lower absolute price levels as a starting point for a search, then compare specific properties for location, condition, area and total acquisition cost. Treat the municipal averages as orientation rather than valuation.

Ask for the complete listing history. When segment figures are unavailable, place more weight on property-specific evidence and avoid relying on an apparently precise municipal change to justify an offer.

What this means for sellers

The discount figures make a realistic initial asking price particularly valuable. A large accumulated adjustment is not evidence that every seller began too high, but it does show that asking-price revisions can be an important part of reaching a transaction.

The sharp quarterly movements also warrant caution. Nazaré’s +27.0% €/m² does not justify a matching increase in every asking price, and Caldas’s −35.0% average total value does not establish a comparable loss for an individual home.

Methodology and sources

This report uses Q3 2026 municipality-level statistics from Confidencial Imobiliário’s SIR — Sistema de Informação Residencial. The quarter ended September 30, 2026, and AGTP reviewed the uploaded files and extended history on October 15. Municipal tables combine all residential property types and new or used conditions; segment sections identify narrower filters.

Prices are averages, not medians. €/m² uses gross private area, or área bruta privativa, which is not necessarily equivalent to American interior living area. Estimated transactions are CI’s market-activity estimates, not the raw sample supporting every price statistic.

The extended history spans Q1 2024–Q3 2026. Four-quarter unit sales changes compare Q4 2025–Q3 2026 with Q4 2024–Q3 2025. Historical editions can have different revision status; full comparability of release status has not been established. Quarterly changes compare Q3 with Q2 2026. Annual changes compare Q3 2026 with Q3 2025. Both describe changes in aggregate averages and can reflect property mix. They are not controlled measures of appreciation, and quarterly changes are not seasonally adjusted. Unavailable segment figures have not been estimated.

Listing-to-transaction time measures marketing months, with the transaction assigned to the CPCV when one exists or the deed otherwise. It is not months of inventory or necessarily the time to final deed. New properties can include certain recent resales and homes sold during planning or construction.

Final discount compares the completed sale with the last asking price; accumulated discount compares it with the original asking price. Percentages are presented as reduction magnitudes. Neither is an automatic offer recommendation.

Data status: Preliminary. Figures remain subject to revision with the Q4 dissemination. Updated selling-price treatment (PVA) has not been independently confirmed for these Q3 files. Quarter-over-quarter comparisons use the current Q2 2026 workbook in AGTP’s Google Drive as the authoritative baseline. Year-over-year comparisons use the Q3 2025 workbook. All six Q3 reports use the same source tables and definitions.

Read How We Analyze Portugal’s Real Estate Market for definitions and limitations. AGTP is responsible for the selection, calculations and interpretation; CI/Imoestatística supplies the underlying statistics.

Source: Confidencial Imobiliário, SIR — Residential Information System. AGTP analysis. © IMOESTATISTICA – TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.

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