Source figures are in euros and m². Display conversions are estimates; percentage changes retain their source-currency basis.
In this report
At a Glance
Reading Time
10 minutes
Who This Report Is For
Americans buying, selling or comparing locations in Portugal.
You’ll Learn
- Setúbal averaged €315,919 and €3,126/m²; Palmela €323,971 and €2,901/m²; Sesimbra €341,375 and €3,310/m².
- Estimated unit sales were lower in all three, both in Q3 and over the latest four quarters.
- Setúbal’s marketing time increased from four to six months. Sesimbra’s aggregate price decline contrasts with strong increases in used T2 and T3 apartment averages.
Key Takeaway
Unit sales slowed across Setúbal, Palmela and Sesimbra, while prices and selling conditions followed different paths.
Higher prices coexisted with slower unit sales and different negotiating conditions
Setúbal and Palmela retained strong annual growth in average €/m², at 18.4% and 18.3%. Sesimbra’s municipal average fell 3.9%, even though its used-apartment and house averages increased. The three markets cannot be described by a single price trend.
Unit sales activity has slowed across all three. Four-quarter unit sales totals fell 4.3% in Setúbal, 8.9% in Palmela and 6.2% in Sesimbra. Setúbal also combined higher supply with longer marketing and wider final discounts than a year earlier. That is clearer evidence of more difficult transaction conditions than the price average alone would suggest.
Higher prices in these municipalities do not establish a ripple of buyers moving outward from Lisbon. That remains a hypothesis requiring evidence about buyer origins and search behaviour.
What did homes sell for
Sesimbra had the highest average €/m² and total transaction value of these three markets. Palmela had the lowest €/m² and the largest average transacted property, at 119 m². Average total transaction values were much closer than their per-metre prices: €315,919 in Setúbal, €323,971 in Palmela and €341,375 in Sesimbra.
For comparison, Lisbon averaged €5,963/m² and 92 m² in Q3. That is a useful point of orientation, but it does not make the southern markets interchangeable or establish which location offers the best personal fit.
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| Municipality | Average total sale price | Average €/m² | Average property size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Setúbal | €315,919 | €3,126 | 105 m² |
| Palmela | €323,971 | €2,901 | 119 m² |
| Sesimbra | €341,375 | €3,310 | 115 m² |
| Measure | Setúbal | Palmela | Sesimbra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average total sale price | €315,919 | €323,971 | €341,375 |
| Average €/m² | €3,126 | €2,901 | €3,310 |
| Average property size | 105 m² | 119 m² | 115 m² |
Source: Confidencial Imobiliário, SIR — Residential Information System. AGTP analysis. © IMOESTATISTICA – TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.
How have prices changed
Setúbal’s €/m² rose 18.4% year over year, while its total transaction value rose 10.9%. Its average property was smaller than last year: 105 versus 113 m². Palmela’s €/m² rose 18.3%, total value rose 12.3%, and average area declined from 125 to 119 m².
Sesimbra moved differently. Its overall €/m² fell 3.9%, while average total value rose 11.4% and area increased from 108 to 115 m². The wider segment evidence makes it especially important not to describe that municipal decline as a general loss of value across Sesimbra homes.
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| Municipality | Total sale price vs Q2 | Total sale price vs Q3 2025 | €/m² vs Q2 | €/m² vs Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setúbal | -2.9% | +10.9% | +4.1% | +18.4% |
| Palmela | +1.4% | +12.3% | +2.3% | +18.3% |
| Sesimbra | +2.4% | +11.4% | -1.3% | -3.9% |
| Measure | Setúbal | Palmela | Sesimbra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total sale price vs Q2 | -2.9% | +1.4% | +2.4% |
| Total sale price vs Q3 2025 | +10.9% | +12.3% | +11.4% |
| €/m² vs Q2 | +4.1% | +2.3% | -1.3% |
| €/m² vs Q3 2025 | +18.4% | +18.3% | -3.9% |
Source: Confidencial Imobiliário, SIR — Residential Information System. AGTP analysis. © IMOESTATISTICA – TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.
The longer view
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| Municipality | Unit sales over 4 quarters | €/m² annual change Q1 | Q2 | Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setúbal | -4.3% | +20.4% | +22.2% | +18.4% |
| Palmela | -8.9% | +24.8% | +20.0% | +18.3% |
| Sesimbra | -6.2% | +34.5% | +26.3% | -3.9% |
| Measure | Setúbal | Palmela | Sesimbra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unit sales over 4 quarters | -4.3% | -8.9% | -6.2% |
| €/m² annual change Q1 | +20.4% | +24.8% | +34.5% |
| Q2 | +22.2% | +20.0% | +26.3% |
| Q3 | +18.4% | +18.3% | -3.9% |
Four-quarter unit sales compare Q4 2025–Q3 2026 with Q4 2024–Q3 2025. Price columns show each quarter’s change from the same quarter a year earlier; they are not quarterly growth rates.
Source: Confidencial Imobiliário, SIR — Residential Information System. AGTP analysis. © IMOESTATISTICA – TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.
Unit sales activity and available supply
Setúbal has recorded four consecutive quarters of annual unit sales declines; Palmela and Sesimbra have each recorded five. The Q3 reductions of 9.9%, 9.0% and 5.8% sit within that longer slowdown.
Supply rose from Q2 in each municipality, but the annual picture differed. Setúbal had 3.5% more offered homes; Palmela had 1.7% fewer and Sesimbra 9.5% fewer. Setúbal also took longer to transact and recorded a wider final discount. Palmela’s marketing time was unchanged and its final discount narrowed. These are different conditions for sellers despite the shared decline in unit sales.
New properties represented 43.2% of Setúbal’s offered supply, 24.6% of Palmela’s and 51.5% of Sesimbra’s, exceeding their respective shares of estimated transactions. The stage of completion matters when assessing the choices available to a buyer.
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| Municipality | Estimated unit sales | Unit sales vs Q3 2025 | Homes offered | Supply vs Q2 | Supply vs Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setúbal | 529 | -9.9% | 1,726 | +6.5% | +3.5% |
| Palmela | 294 | -9.0% | 686 | +1.9% | -1.7% |
| Sesimbra | 274 | -5.8% | 954 | +9.7% | -9.5% |
| Measure | Setúbal | Palmela | Sesimbra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated unit sales | 529 | 294 | 274 |
| Unit sales vs Q3 2025 | -9.9% | -9.0% | -5.8% |
| Homes offered | 1,726 | 686 | 954 |
| Supply vs Q2 | +6.5% | +1.9% | +9.7% |
| Supply vs Q3 2025 | +3.5% | -1.7% | -9.5% |
Source: Confidencial Imobiliário, SIR — Residential Information System. AGTP analysis. © IMOESTATISTICA – TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.
Setúbal
Used apartments averaged €3,032/m², 20.3% above Q3 last year, while new apartments averaged €3,911/m², 8.9% below. New apartments had a higher average total sale price than last year alongside a much larger average area, illustrating how total value and €/m² can move in opposite directions.
Used apartments averaged €254,277 and five months from listing to transaction. New apartments averaged €486,658 and 15 months. That longer period can include transactions agreed during planning or construction; it does not by itself demonstrate weak demand or a delayed building.
Houses averaged €422,350 and 153 m², compared with €287,911 and 92 m² for apartments overall. Their final discount was 8.2%, versus 3.7% for apartments. The difference is relevant to negotiating context, although it is not a formula for an offer.
Used T2 and T3 average €/m² rose 22.7% and 19.0% annually. That supports price resilience within established apartment categories, even while the municipal selling timeline lengthened.
Palmela
Used apartments averaged €2,868/m², up 19.2% year over year but almost unchanged from Q2. They took three months from listing to transaction and had a 2.5% final discount. That combination gives little support to a blanket assumption of generous negotiating room in the apartment market.
Houses overall averaged €400,300 and 150 m²; apartments averaged €279,446 and 102 m². Houses took six months and had a 3.8% final discount. The higher total budget purchased a different average property profile.
New apartments averaged a lower €/m² than used apartments in Q3, but the figures describe different properties and locations. The Q2 new-apartment price statistic is unavailable, so a quarterly change cannot be calculated. A universal new-build premium would misrepresent this evidence.
Used T2 average €/m² rose 11.7% annually and used T3 rose 25.4%. The different rates reinforce the value of comparing the home a buyer actually needs rather than applying the municipal increase to every property.
Sesimbra
Used-apartment €/m² rose 18.4% year over year to €3,419. Houses overall rose 26.8% to €3,021/m². Both increased despite the decline in the municipal average.
New-apartment price statistics are unavailable for Q3. That missing evidence limits our ability to explain the aggregate movement fully. The appropriate conclusion is that Sesimbra’s municipal average conceals different segment positions, rather than that the whole municipality is depreciating.
Used apartments averaged €271,225 and three months of marketing time. Houses averaged €401,618 and five months. Their final discounts were 4.4% and 5.2% respectively. A buyer comparing an apartment with a house is changing more than the amount of space purchased.
Used T2 and T3 average €/m² rose 26.4% and 23.4% annually. The contrast with the municipal decline makes composition a plausible influence on the aggregate result. Missing new-apartment price evidence prevents a full explanation; the figures do not show a uniform fall in home values.
Marketing time and negotiation
Setúbal’s municipal marketing time increased from four to six months compared with Q3 last year, while its final discount widened from 4.4% to 4.7%. Combined with fewer unit sales and more supply, this points to more transaction friction despite the higher price average.
Palmela and Sesimbra remained at five months. Palmela’s final discount narrowed from 3.6% to 3.3%; Sesimbra’s widened from 4.0% to 4.6%. The apartment and house comparisons remain important: the municipal discount is neither an offer formula nor a prediction of the reduction available on a current listing.
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| Municipality | Listing to transaction | Final discount | Accumulated discount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Setúbal | 6 months | 4.7% | 6.3% |
| Palmela | 5 months | 3.3% | 5.0% |
| Sesimbra | 5 months | 4.6% | 6.3% |
| Measure | Setúbal | Palmela | Sesimbra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Listing to transaction | 6 months | 5 months | 5 months |
| Final discount | 4.7% | 3.3% | 4.6% |
| Accumulated discount | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% |
Source: Confidencial Imobiliário, SIR — Residential Information System. AGTP analysis. © IMOESTATISTICA – TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.
Mortgage demand in context
Banco de Portugal’s July 2026 survey reported slightly weaker housing-loan demand in Q2. This national assessment is not an application count or evidence of the cause of this region’s Q3 unit sales changes.
What this means for buyers
Define the balance you want between space, location and the total acquisition budget. Then keep apartment and house comparisons separate. The averages suggest materially different budgets and selling conditions even within the same municipality.
For new properties, establish the stage of completion and the dates covered by the contract. For existing homes, examine condition, permitted use, property documentation and likely immediate work alongside price.
What this means for sellers
A strong annual €/m² comparison is useful context, but it does not value your property. Setúbal’s new and used apartments moved differently, and Sesimbra’s segment evidence differs from its municipal average.
Pricing should reflect the property buyers are comparing with yours. The larger discount recorded for Setúbal houses is a reason to examine comparable pricing and listing history carefully, not a reason to add an arbitrary negotiation allowance.
Michael’s Perspective
The useful message this quarter is that higher average prices can coexist with a harder sale. Setúbal illustrates that most clearly, with fewer transactions, more supply and a longer selling timeline.
I would also be careful with Sesimbra’s headline price decline. The apartment evidence tells a different story. For buyers and sellers, the next step is to identify which properties provide the closest comparison, rather than letting the municipal average settle the question.
Methodology and sources
This report uses Q3 2026 municipality-level statistics from Confidencial Imobiliário’s SIR — Sistema de Informação Residencial. The quarter ended September 30, 2026, and AGTP reviewed the uploaded files and extended history on October 15. Municipal tables combine all residential property types and new or used conditions; segment sections identify narrower filters.
Prices are averages, not medians. €/m² uses gross private area, or área bruta privativa, which is not necessarily equivalent to American interior living area. Estimated transactions are CI’s market-activity estimates, not the raw sample supporting every price statistic.
The extended history spans Q1 2024–Q3 2026. Four-quarter unit sales changes compare Q4 2025–Q3 2026 with Q4 2024–Q3 2025. Historical editions can have different revision status; full comparability of release status has not been established. Quarterly changes compare Q3 with Q2 2026. Annual changes compare Q3 2026 with Q3 2025. Both describe changes in aggregate averages and can reflect property mix. They are not controlled measures of appreciation, and quarterly changes are not seasonally adjusted. Unavailable segment figures have not been estimated.
Listing-to-transaction time measures marketing months, with the transaction assigned to the CPCV when one exists or the deed otherwise. It is not months of inventory or necessarily the time to final deed. New properties can include certain recent resales and homes sold during planning or construction.
Final discount compares the completed sale with the last asking price; accumulated discount compares it with the original asking price. Percentages are presented as reduction magnitudes. Neither is an automatic offer recommendation.
Data status: Preliminary. Figures remain subject to revision with the Q4 dissemination. Updated selling-price treatment (PVA) has not been independently confirmed for these Q3 files. Quarter-over-quarter comparisons use the current Q2 2026 workbook in AGTP’s Google Drive as the authoritative baseline. Year-over-year comparisons use the Q3 2025 workbook. All six Q3 reports use the same source tables and definitions.
Read How We Analyze Portugal’s Real Estate Market for definitions and limitations. AGTP is responsible for the selection, calculations and interpretation; CI/Imoestatística supplies the underlying statistics.
Source: Confidencial Imobiliário, SIR — Residential Information System. AGTP analysis. © IMOESTATISTICA – TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.
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Photography credits
Photo by Ivo Sousa Martins on Unsplash, used under the Unsplash License. Cropped responsively for this report.